The economic news today is confusing, to say the least.

MarketWatch reports holiday retail sales were “weak.” But Reuters reports that sales were stronger than expected – showing a 4.5 percent gain compared with holiday sales in 2006.

Equally confusing are the predictions on whether the United States is heading into a recession.

United Parcel Service CEO Scott Davis says the risk of recession has increased. Economists at the investment banking firm Goldman-Sachs say a recession may already have started. And Bloomberg reports that its survey of 62 economists finds a majority saying the U.S. won’t have a recession because consumer spending will help us dodge the bullet.