A recently released study on the driver shortage not only predicts that in 10 years the industry could be 111,000 drivers short but also that some of the reasons behind the shortage are things truckers have been saying for a long time.

Global Insight Inc., the company that did the study, estimated the current driver shortage at 20,000 and forecasted that shortage to grow to 111,000 by 2014.

And that doesn’t even take into account the “churning” – or the driver turnover – in the industry.

One “critical element,” according to “The U.S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Forecasts” is that the “competitiveness of wages in the truck transportation industry fell sharply with the onset of recession in 2000 and driver wages have yet to regain their previous position.”

The study estimates the trucking wages, which were 6 to 7 percent above the construction industry in the 1990s, fell to 9 percent below construction earnings in 2001. The wages remained 1 percent lower in 2004.

In addition to inadequate pay, the study also points to the “non-monetary aspects of the job” as well.

“Although competitive wages are a major factor in attracting workers to the trucking occupation, quality of life issues are more frequently cited as the primary consideration for worker retention in the industry,” the study reported.

The study listed major irritants as extended periods on the road away from home and unpredictable schedules for getting home.

While the industry faces the “constant challenge of finding qualified drivers,” the study stresses that addressing this problem by lowering hiring standards can create a significant cost in the long run when increased insurance premiums and wrecks are accounted for.

The study gives some hope to truckers by predicting driver wages will increase at a rate of 6 to 7 percent a year during the next three years in an effort to address the shortage.

“This wage increase, in combination with continuing efforts on the part of trucking companies to address quality-of-life issues,” should ease the severity of the driver shortage, according to the study.

Global Insight called the study “U.S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Forecasts.” It was released May 25 by the American Trucking Associations.

– By Jami Jones, Land Line staff
jami_jones@landlinemag.com