Above-normal hurricane season still predicted

| Thursday, August 09, 2007

The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its update to the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook this week, maintaining its expectations for an above-normal season.

As the hurricane season enters the peak months of August through October, NOAA scientists are predicting an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, with the likelihood of 13 to 16 named storms, with seven to nine predicted to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, three to five would likely become major hurricanes, according to a NOAA press release.

The development of “key climate factors” through early August increased the possibility of an above-normal season and led forecasters to tweak the ranges that had been given in their May outlook. In May, NOAA predicted a range of 13-17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, and three to five becoming major hurricanes.

So far this season, there have been three Atlantic named storms, Andrea, Barry and Chantal, which is slightly above average. On average, one to two storms develop in June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

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